Jabba the HuttDead or Deader wrote:"Jaba the Hut" or however you spell it.
(PS, not a Star Wars fanboy)
Awards Season 2017
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Re: Awards Season 2017
- Ribs
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Re: Awards Season 2017
A positive I think has been ignored is that the Phantom Thread surge does probably mean that it's a serious player and is probably likely to win in the Best Score race, which seemed like it was just going to Desplat without really much fanfare.
- mfunk9786
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Re: Awards Season 2017
I thought "Juba" was meant to be a homonym with "Jew-ba" which is why I was taken aback, amusing that it was just unfamiliarity with Star Wars that created the confusion!McCrutchy wrote:Jabba the HuttDead or Deader wrote:"Jaba the Hut" or however you spell it.
(PS, not a Star Wars fanboy)
It's just a vibe I've been getting over the last few days, but I don't think anyone was too thrilled with the existing frontrunners and that has absolutely left a gap in which Phantom Thread fits. If it isn't Lady Bird or Get Out, I think it's Phantom Thread. Very few people have anything negative to say about it, and it came out so late that it's the freshest in everyone's minds. I continue to refuse to believe that anyone thinks The Shape of Water is the best picture of the year.Ribs wrote:A positive I think has been ignored is that the Phantom Thread surge does probably mean that it's a serious player and is probably likely to win in the Best Score race, which seemed like it was just going to Desplat without really much fanfare.
I will say - if the Philadelphia Eagles win the Super Bowl and Phantom Thread wins Best Picture, I'll probably decide to go out on a high note and permanently retire from consumption of popular culture.
- Ribs
- Joined: Fri Jun 13, 2014 1:14 pm
Re: Awards Season 2017
Shape of Water seems like it'll be a *very* common #2 choice, even if it's only third or fourth in most #1 votes. If I were to guess in raw vote totals of #1 votes, it's probably something like:
Three Billboards
Lady Bird
Shape of Water
Get Out
Dunkirk
The Post
Call Me By Your Name
Phantom Thread
Darkest Hour
It's very easy to imagine, of Phantom Thread and Call Me By Your Name fans, that Shape of Water is their 2nd favorite. But if the Post is less popular than I've expected, that could be a boon for Dunkirk as it probably gains the votes of that and Darkest Hour.
My position has become rooting for Three Billboards because I was really concerned a Get Out win would turn the Moonlight moment into this all-time "the Oscars have been ripped apart, never to be put back together" moment, pulled off in an instant. But Three Billboards winning after a year where La La Land was deemed too racist is just *classic* Oscars, totally clueless as to the mood of the room. All indications should be Shape of Water at the top but Fox Searchlight is now in the possibly unprecedented position of having both the Oscar frontrunners!
Three Billboards
Lady Bird
Shape of Water
Get Out
Dunkirk
The Post
Call Me By Your Name
Phantom Thread
Darkest Hour
It's very easy to imagine, of Phantom Thread and Call Me By Your Name fans, that Shape of Water is their 2nd favorite. But if the Post is less popular than I've expected, that could be a boon for Dunkirk as it probably gains the votes of that and Darkest Hour.
My position has become rooting for Three Billboards because I was really concerned a Get Out win would turn the Moonlight moment into this all-time "the Oscars have been ripped apart, never to be put back together" moment, pulled off in an instant. But Three Billboards winning after a year where La La Land was deemed too racist is just *classic* Oscars, totally clueless as to the mood of the room. All indications should be Shape of Water at the top but Fox Searchlight is now in the possibly unprecedented position of having both the Oscar frontrunners!
- mfunk9786
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Re: Awards Season 2017
Three Billboards is dead. Its lack of a Best Director nomination and the increasingly toxic conversation around it has totally killed its chances to take Best Picture. Totally.
This piece in the LA Times makes the compelling case that Phantom Thread is the much more likely "backlash" film, in that it's very different from the topical and diverse choices on the board but still pretty universally beloved by those who've seen it, the number of which should be quite large by the time voting takes place since everyone will want to catch up to Daniel Day-Lewis' final performance before they vote for Best Actor.
Perhaps it's wishful thinking on my part, but I'd rank Best Picture in order of likelihood of happening (which I know is not exactly what you were doing, Ribs) at:
01. Lady Bird
02. Phantom Thread
03. Get Out
04. The Shape of Water
05. Dunkirk
06. Three Billboards
07. Darkest Hour
08. The Post
09. Call Me By Your Name
if I were just going on a hunch today.
Also, La La Land being "deemed too racist" seems like a pretty fictional narrative re: what happened last year. No one was accusing the film of being racist, let alone "too" racist. Three Billboards is absolutely racially problematic, though.
This piece in the LA Times makes the compelling case that Phantom Thread is the much more likely "backlash" film, in that it's very different from the topical and diverse choices on the board but still pretty universally beloved by those who've seen it, the number of which should be quite large by the time voting takes place since everyone will want to catch up to Daniel Day-Lewis' final performance before they vote for Best Actor.
Perhaps it's wishful thinking on my part, but I'd rank Best Picture in order of likelihood of happening (which I know is not exactly what you were doing, Ribs) at:
01. Lady Bird
02. Phantom Thread
03. Get Out
04. The Shape of Water
05. Dunkirk
06. Three Billboards
07. Darkest Hour
08. The Post
09. Call Me By Your Name
if I were just going on a hunch today.
Also, La La Land being "deemed too racist" seems like a pretty fictional narrative re: what happened last year. No one was accusing the film of being racist, let alone "too" racist. Three Billboards is absolutely racially problematic, though.
- DarkImbecile
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Re: Awards Season 2017
Is that what happened to La La Land, or did more people rank Moonlight higher on their ballots?Ribs wrote:But Three Billboards winning after a year where La La Land was deemed too racist is just *classic* Oscars, totally clueless as to the mood of the room.
- mfunk9786
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Re: Awards Season 2017
Again, a film about black people could not win unless there were some sort of race-oriented campaign to punish a superior white film. Haven't you been keeping up with this thread? This is incontrovertible fact.DarkImbecile wrote:Is that what happened to La La Land, or did more people rank Moonlight higher on their ballots?Ribs wrote:But Three Billboards winning after a year where La La Land was deemed too racist is just *classic* Oscars, totally clueless as to the mood of the room.
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Re: Awards Season 2017
I'm just annoyed that there isn't more love for Darkest Hour, since I want Universal to release it on Ultra HD Blu-ray, as I'm future-proofing for upgrading to 4K in the future. It looks like that won't happen, and I may have to settle for standard Blu-ray, and as it will have a Dolby Atmos mix, it looks like 4K was on the cards and shelved, at least for now.
At least Dunkirk and Get Out are already in my collection, and I'll be happily adding The Post, The Shape of Water, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri and somewhat shockingly, Phantom Thread (ironically, also coming via Universal) to my obscenely large UHD Blu-ray collection. So that's only Call Me By Your Name, Darkest Hour and Lady Bird that may not be released on UHD Blu-ray, and obviously, that should change if one of those three wins Best Picture.
Hopefully, next year becomes the first year that all the nominees will be available on UHD BD. I remember hoping the same thing with Blu-ray ten years or so ago.
At least Dunkirk and Get Out are already in my collection, and I'll be happily adding The Post, The Shape of Water, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri and somewhat shockingly, Phantom Thread (ironically, also coming via Universal) to my obscenely large UHD Blu-ray collection. So that's only Call Me By Your Name, Darkest Hour and Lady Bird that may not be released on UHD Blu-ray, and obviously, that should change if one of those three wins Best Picture.
Hopefully, next year becomes the first year that all the nominees will be available on UHD BD. I remember hoping the same thing with Blu-ray ten years or so ago.
Last edited by McCrutchy on Wed Jan 24, 2018 7:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
- swo17
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Re: Awards Season 2017
Sorry to break it to you mfunk, but Three Billboards is going to win Best Picture. (And Trump is going to win re-election. And Kylo Ren is going to win Star Wars 9.)
- DarkImbecile
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Re: Awards Season 2017
Would I trade these things for an Eagles Super Bowl win? Hmmmm.....
- mfunk9786
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Re: Awards Season 2017
"Why didn't you say so?!" - Oscar votersMcCrutchy wrote:I'm just annoyed that there isn't more love for Darkest Hour, since I want Universal to release it on Ultra HD Blu-ray
I thought so too before the nominations come out, now I think it's a virtual impossibility. Think it's much more likely that the other two things you said happen.swo17 wrote:Sorry to break it to you mfunk, but Three Billboards is going to win Best Picture.
- knives
- Joined: Sat Sep 06, 2008 6:49 pm
Re: Awards Season 2017
Maybe I am not understanding you, but there was at least that one SNL skit and I vaguely remember other things.mfunk9786 wrote:
Also, La La Land being "deemed too racist" seems like a pretty fictional narrative re: what happened last year. No one was accusing the film of being racist, let alone "too" racist. Three Billboards is absolutely racially problematic, though.
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Re: Awards Season 2017
*Hopes for three-way tie between CMBYN/DH/LB for Best Picture*mfunk9786 wrote:"Why didn't you say so?!" - Oscar votersMcCrutchy wrote:I'm just annoyed that there isn't more love for Darkest Hour, since I want Universal to release it on Ultra HD Blu-ray
- mfunk9786
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Re: Awards Season 2017
I don't remember it verbatim, but wasn't it just about La La Land being such a beloved sensation that Aziz Ansari's character was being grilled for not enjoying it and thinking it dragged in the middle? A la the English Patient episode of Seinfeld?knives wrote:Maybe I am not understanding you, but there was at least that one SNL skit and I vaguely remember other things.mfunk9786 wrote:Also, La La Land being "deemed too racist" seems like a pretty fictional narrative re: what happened last year. No one was accusing the film of being racist, let alone "too" racist. Three Billboards is absolutely racially problematic, though.
- knives
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Re: Awards Season 2017
He also said stuff about white people saving jazz. I think Daily Show also hit that hard.
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Re: Awards Season 2017
There was an absolutely massive social media backlash against La La land on the grounds of a white man being a saviour of jazz, it really built in the weeks before the ceremony.
Also, I'd argue that rather than being a potential winner Phantom Thread is along the lines of Wolf of Wall Street. Respected director, misses the guilds, comes back strong for the Oscars, wins nothing.
Also, I'd argue that rather than being a potential winner Phantom Thread is along the lines of Wolf of Wall Street. Respected director, misses the guilds, comes back strong for the Oscars, wins nothing.
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- Joined: Wed May 05, 2010 11:06 pm
Re: Awards Season 2017
I actually think not being nominated for Best Director just sealed its win for Best Picture. If McDonagh won Director, something else might have won Best Picture, now winning Best picture will be the only way to "do the film justice" and make up for the Director snub.mfunk9786 wrote:Three Billboards is dead. Its lack of a Best Director nomination and the increasingly toxic conversation around it has totally killed its chances to take Best Picture. Totally.
- domino harvey
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Re: Awards Season 2017
It was mostly built by people who didn't see the movie, since Gosling does nothing of the kind. So a dude likes some shit, is passionate about it, and wants to own a club celebrating it. What a horrible human being!!!!
- domino harvey
- Dot Com Dom
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Re: Awards Season 2017
No one gives a shit about McDonagh like they did Affleckfelipe wrote:I actually think not being nominated for Best Director just sealed its win for Best Picture. If McDonagh won Director, something else might have won Best Picture, now winning Best picture will be the only way to "do the film justice" and make up for the Director snub.mfunk9786 wrote:Three Billboards is dead. Its lack of a Best Director nomination and the increasingly toxic conversation around it has totally killed its chances to take Best Picture. Totally.
- Ribs
- Joined: Fri Jun 13, 2014 1:14 pm
Re: Awards Season 2017
The lack of a BD nomination just means that the directors branch like the movie less than all the other branches that do nominate it. It’s pretty clear that the Actors guild, the most important of them, are well in the tank for this.
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Re: Awards Season 2017
Oh I won't try to argue the merits of what they said. But that backlash was definitely a loud and prominent voice between nominations and awards night.domino harvey wrote:It was mostly built by people who didn't see the movie, since Gosling does nothing of the kind. So a dude likes some shit, is passionate about it, and wants to own a club celebrating it. What a horrible human being!!!!
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- Ribs
- Joined: Fri Jun 13, 2014 1:14 pm
Re: Awards Season 2017
More people did not rank Moonlight higher on their ballots (necessarily). More people who liked the least popular BP nominees ranked Moonlight higher on their ballots. It's perfectly possibly that as an average La La Land was ranked higher on the ballots when including the other most voted-for nominees. I'm not disputing its win in any way, but the preferential balloting system does not work the way people assume it does.DarkImbecile wrote:Is that what happened to La La Land, or did more people rank Moonlight higher on their ballots?Ribs wrote:But Three Billboards winning after a year where La La Land was deemed too racist is just *classic* Oscars, totally clueless as to the mood of the room.
My impression of what occurred last year, overall, is that the Golden Globes wins pushed La La Land's backlash to a fever pitch, which highlighted the potentially problematic racial subtext the film has, and a bunch of Academy people were scared off listing it as high as they wanted because they'd been told it'd be racist without actually finding it that way themselves. But now the movie gets to be laughed at forever because many still think it was dumb and racist and it lost so embarrassingly. And I imagine those same people will not be so quick to change their vote for Three Billboards based on these (far more deserved) thinkpieces.
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Re: Awards Season 2017
The backlash was huge! For a week it seemed like the only thing people were talking about the film. Gosling even joked about it on his SNL monologue, didn't he?rawlinson wrote:Oh I won't try to argue the merits of what they said. But that backlash was definitely a loud and prominent voice between nominations and awards night.domino harvey wrote:It was mostly built by people who didn't see the movie, since Gosling does nothing of the kind. So a dude likes some shit, is passionate about it, and wants to own a club celebrating it. What a horrible human being!!!!
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- mfunk9786
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Re: Awards Season 2017
Area Man Thinks Movie He Saw Should Have Been Nominated
“That secret agent movie I saw should definitely have been nominated,” Kent said indignantly of Kingsman: The Golden Circle, the single film he watched in a theater last year, which reportedly featured numerous “cool action scenes” and “really good acting.” “It had the best script. It totally kicked ass. Seriously, what is the Academy thinking?”
- Big Ben
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Re: Awards Season 2017
It's nice to see President Trump chiming in on the awards.mfunk9786 wrote:Area Man Thinks Movie He Saw Should Have Been Nominated
“That secret agent movie I saw should definitely have been nominated,” Kent said indignantly of Kingsman: The Golden Circle, the single film he watched in a theater last year, which reportedly featured numerous “cool action scenes” and “really good acting.” “It had the best script. It totally kicked ass. Seriously, what is the Academy thinking?”
SpoilerShow
He's only seen two films this year and they're The Greatest Showman and Darkest Hour.